Texas Runoffs See 60% Turnout Decline; Ranked Choice Voting can Help

Check out the original article that was published on May 29th 2024 by Rachel Hutchinson here.

Last night, Texas held over two dozen primary runoffs for state and federal offices. These runoffs occurred a full twelve weeks after the initial primary on March 5. Turnout dropped dramatically in every single race, and by 60% across the board. Most nominees won fewer votes in the runoff than they did in the initial primary. These races were particularly divisive for Texas Republicans, as runoffs prolonged spending and infighting between wings of the party. 

Ranked choice voting (RCV) is a cheaper, faster, and better way to vote. It essentially conducts an “instant runoff” on primary day, and helps parties find consensus. Below, we show turnout decline across the state, and highlight some of the high profile races where RCV would have helped.

Texas State House District 21 – GOP runoff

Several of last night’s runoffs reflected the Texas GOP’s “civil war,” which was launched in part by the recent impeachment trial of Attorney General Ken Paxton, as well as over Governor Greg Abbott’s school voucher legislation. Nowhere was this felt more than in the 21st State House District, where current Texas State House Speaker Dade Phelan warded off a challenge from former Orange County GOP Chairman Dave Covey. Phelan was supported by establishment Republicans, and Covey was backed by former President Trump, Abbott, and Paxton. Phelan won with 51% to Covey’s 49%. 

Phelan and Covey were neck and neck in the March 5 primary, having won 46% and 43% of votes respectively. Over $5 million was spent on campaigning, potentially making this the most expensive state house race in history.

District 21 is safely red; no one ran in the Democratic primary, so last night’s result essentially decided who will win the seat. This runoff was the subject of national attention, and will have major implications for the state’s legislative agenda. Yet it was decided by just 47% of the initial primary electorate, and Phelan received fewer votes than he did in March. 

23rd Congressional District – GOP runoff

A border district encompassing Uvalde, the 23rd Congressional District also garnered national interest. Incumbent Representative Tony Gonzalez faced pro-gun internet personality Brandon Herrera in the GOP runoff, after advancing from the initial primary with 45% and 25% respectively. Gonzales has broken from his party on issues like gun control, and was censured for doing so, but had the support of Governor Abbott and the House GOP leadership. Herrera was backed by U.S. Representative Matt Gaetz (FL-1) and other members of the House Freedom Caucus. Last night, Gonzalez won narrowly, with 51% of votes to Herrera’s 49%. Turnout dropped by 49%, and Gonzalez earned 10,965 fewer votes than he did in the initial primary. 

28th Congressional District – GOP runoff

Navy veteran Jay Furman won the GOP runoff in the 28th Congressional District with 65% of votes, and will now face incumbent Democratic Representative Henry Cuellar in November. Furman initially faced a four-way primary in March, where he and rancher Lazaro Garza advanced to the runoff with 45% and 27%, respectively. Rep. Cuellar has represented South Texas in Congress for nearly two decades, but was recently indicted on corruption charges – making the seat potentially competitive. Turnout in the GOP runoff dropped by 53%, and Furman earned fewer votes in the runoff than he did in the initial election.

12th Congressional District – GOP runoff

Representative Kay Granger, the longest-serving Republican congresswoman and recent chair of the House Appropriations Committee, decided not to seek re-election. Her retirement prompted a competitive primary to replace her in this safe-red district. 

Last night’s runoff featured State Rep. Craig Goldman and businessman John O’Shea. Goldman had the endorsements of Granger and Abbott, but O’Shea was backed by Paxton. Last night, Goldman won with 63% of votes to O’Shea’s 37%, but earned 14,769 fewer votes in the runoff than in the March primary. Turnout declined by 63%.  

Texas needs ranked choice voting

These problems aren’t unique to state and federal races. Houston and Dallas – Texas’s two largest cities – saw steep turnout declines in their recent runoff elections, too. 

Ranked choice voting offers Texans a better way forward. Voters can indicate who their backup choice(s) will be in the event of a runoff, without having to return to the polls. Elections would be decided when turnout is naturally the highest. The state wouldn’t have to fund another election, and candidates wouldn’t have to fund prolonged campaigns. In fact, research shows that RCV would have saved Texas over $6 million in 2022. 

Moreover, RCV incentivizes candidates to make broad appeals, which could promote civility and party unity during primary campaigns. In competitive districts, this would make for stronger candidates. In districts safe for one party, nominees would be selected on primary day, when turnout is naturally the highest. 

Dozens of jurisdictions already use RCV instead of runoff elections. They include several of Texas’s southern neighbors, which use RCV ballots for military and overseas voters to participate in runoffs. 

Additionally, Texas localities are already asking for RCV. Austin voters passed a ballot measure in favor of it in 2021. The Dallas Charter Review Commission is considering placing RCV on the November ballot, and RCV is being discussed in San Antonio, too. Wherever RCV is used, voters overwhelmingly support it.

Texas legislators have the opportunity to implement a cost-effective system that has empowered voters across the country. At the least, Texas should allow localities to decide how to run their elections, as the Utah legislature has done with its RCV pilot program.